Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Need

Need

Everyone needs something, but not everyone has what it takes to obtain what they need on their own.

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This topic is an Out Of Character part of the roleplay, ?Need?. Anything posted here will also show up there.

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Forum for completely Out of Character (OOC) discussion, based around whatever is happening In Character (IC). Discuss plans, storylines, and events; Recruit for your roleplaying game, or find a GM for your playergroup.
This is the auto-generated OOC topic for the roleplay "Need"

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User avatar
bizarre1
Member for 2 years



Find I'm kind of liking this idea. I really hope it takes off, and I'd like to join. Do we need to clear it with you first, or can we just put a character sheet up?

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Alan23
Member for 1 years



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Animals learn to fine-tune their sniffs

ScienceDaily (Oct. 30, 2012) ? Animals use their noses to focus their sense of smell, much the same way that humans focus their eyes, new research at the University of Chicago shows.

A research team studying rats found that animals adjust their sense of smell through sniffing techniques that bring scents to receptors in different parts of the nose. The sniffing patterns changed according to what kind of substance the rats were attempting to detect.

The sense of smell is particularly important for many animals, as they need it to detect predators and to search out food. "Dogs, for instance, are quite dependent on their sense of smell," said study author Leslie Kay, associate professor of psychology and director of the Institute for Mind & Biology at the University of Chicago. "But there are many chemicals in the smells they detect, so detecting the one that might be from a predator or an explosive, for instance, is a complex process."

Kay was joined in writing the paper by Daniel Rojas-L?bano, a postdoctoral scholar at the University of Chile in Santiago, who received his PhD from UChicago in 2011. Rojas-L?bano, who did the work as a doctoral scholar, was the first author on the publication. Their results are published in an article, "Interplay Between Sniffing and Odorant Properties in the Rat," in the current issue of the Journal of Neuroscience.

Scholars have hypothesized that animals may be able to focus sniffing, just as humans focus their sight to detect a target, like the face of a friend, in a crowd. Humans are also known to be able to adjust their ability to detect specific odors with practice when cooking or sampling wine, for instance.

Kay and Rojas-Libano drew from two ideas proposed by other scholars to test whether animals can focus their sniffs.

In one set of findings, researchers had shown that the nose can act like a gas chromatograph (a device that separates chemicals in complex blends like flower scents), absorbing substances for different times depending on how readily they interact with the water-based mucus on the sensory receptors in the nose. Odorants that have high "sorption values" are easily absorbed into the mucus, while odors that do not absorb easily into water have lower sorption values.

The other finding crucial to the current work was the discovery that changes in the airflow rates of scents entering the nose can change which odors the nose readily detects. Different parts of the nose have different airflows, and classes of receptors suited to detecting specific odors. Researchers had speculated that animals might be able to change airflow to target specific odors in a blend of chemicals, like focusing on smelling a particular scent in a perfume.

But until the publication of the paper by Kay and Rojas-L?bano, no one had been able to test the ideas that arose from those earlier findings.

"Daniel devised an excellent experiment to test these hypotheses," Kay explained. Rojas-L?bano trained rats to detect a specific odor by rewarding them with a sugar pellet when they had detected a target odor and responded correctly. Electrodes attached to the rats' diaphragm muscles measured the rate at which they were taking in air. He then tested the animals with many mixtures of two chemicals to see if they could pick out those containing the target scent.

The rats were successful in making the distinctions, regardless of which type of odor they were seeking. But the rats learned to look for a highly absorbent odor much more quickly than the rats learning to detect a less absorbent odor. The rats also inhaled differently, depending on which type of odor they were detecting. The animals inhaled for a longer time when they were learning to detect the low-absorbing odor, and then reduced flow rates once they had learned to detect the odor, researchers determined.

"What was happening was that the air was moving through the nose at a slower rate and targeting those parts of the nasal epithelium that are further along in the pathway -- those more likely to pick up the low-absorbent odors," Kay said.

For highly absorbent odors, the animals inhaled more quickly because the parts of the nasal cavity that are sensitive to those smells are closer to the start of the nose's air pathway.

"I think one of the most interesting aspects of these experiments is the finding of the difference in difficulty the rats displayed to detect different targets from the same set of mixtures," Rojas-L?bano said. "This shows that there is more to olfaction than just receptor types and combinations. If detection was solely based on chemical-receptor interactions (as people seem to assume quite often), performance levels should have been more similar between the groups of rats. The physical properties of the odors matter a lot, and so does the type of sniff that an individual uses to smell the odors."

The project was supported with a grant from the National Institute on Deafness and Other Communication Disorders.

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Story Source:

The above story is reprinted from materials provided by University of Chicago. The original article was written by William Harms.

Note: Materials may be edited for content and length. For further information, please contact the source cited above.


Note: If no author is given, the source is cited instead.

Disclaimer: Views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of ScienceDaily or its staff.

Source: http://feeds.sciencedaily.com/~r/sciencedaily/top_news/top_science/~3/PeGd8ou79-k/121030210035.htm

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Mitchell Martin Innovates IT Recruiting with Video Interviews

Recruiters enjoying efficiencies offered by video interviews

/EINPresswire.com/ Mitchell Martin and TalentRooster have teamed up to integrate cloud-based video interviewing into the recruiting process. Mitchell Martin, an IT consulting firm and allied healthcare staffing agency, is one of the top 100 fastest growing private companies in the United States.

To be a contender in this highly competitive space, Mitchell Martin needs to be a thought leader. As such, the company began using video technology to market their candidates to clients and prospects.

TalentRooster was selected following a comprehensive review of several high-profile competitors, with its user-friendly interface, comprehensive features, and impressive client roster setting it apart. ?TalentRooster is pleased to team-up with Mitchell Martin to simplify their interviewing process,? explained David DeCapua, CEO of TalentRooster. ?Video is quickly becoming a widely-used recruitment tool, and Mitchell Martin has now become one of the first IT firms in the United States to use this powerful technology.?

In partnership with TalentRooster, Mitchell Martin will significantly reduce the time clients spend interviewing potential candidates. Clients will simply provide specific interview questions to Mitchell Martin and potential candidates will answer those questions using TalentRooster?s video technology. Clients can then view responses whenever they desire. Once the company?s client has agreed to interview a candiate in person, they already know what to expect.

?We?re excited to enhance our offering with the latest video technology provided by TalentRooster, ? explained Michael Laskowski, Senior Vice President of Mitchell Martin. ?Video interviewing capabilities significantly shorten the interview process for our clients, making the entire process more time-efficient.?

Learn more about TalentRooster and the company?s advanced video interviewing services at TalentRooster.com

About TalentRooster Founded in 2010, TalentRooster is an innovative and fast-growing video interview service that supports human resource and recruiting professionals nationwide. Interviews are stored securely online and may be easily searched, tracked and forwarded to hiring managers. TalentRooster also offers around-the-clock technical and operational support.

Media Contact:
David DeCapua
TalentRooster
614-255-1372
http://TalentRooster.com

PR courtesy of Online PR Media.

Source: http://www.wirednewsengine.com/2012/10/31/Mitchell-Martin-Innovates-IT-Recruiting-with-Video-Interviews_2012103122525.html

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Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Lexus Should Build the Supercharged GS F Sport Show Car [2012 ...

Every Lexus ever offered in the U.S. has been naturally aspirated. No superchargers. No turbochargers. For the brand?s 23-year existence. This should change, and the Supercharged 2013 GS350 F Sport, which is just an outsourced show car created for SEMA, would be a good starting point. Following the dog-earned, weather-worn playbook that correlates a SEMA appearance?.

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Source: http://autoecommerce.org/lexus-should-build-the-supercharged-gs-f-sport-show-car-2012-sema-show/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=lexus-should-build-the-supercharged-gs-f-sport-show-car-2012-sema-show

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Convenient Using PLR Advice Examined | EzinePR

Grocery stores undertake it. Vitamin supplement sellers take action. Even appliance manufacturers do it. And now internet business owners consider advantage of this low-cost product creation method also. I?m speaking about using private-label merchandise.

If you?ve ever bought store-brand canned goods, blue jeans, or possibly a refrigerator, you most likely are aware of how private label rights works. Basically, a store buys a product ? let?s use ice cream as an example ? and pays the producer to place the store?s label about the item. They are acquiring the right to sell another manufacturer?s item as his or her own. It?s a proven strategy for lowering manufacturing costs and increasing profits, in addition to being an Internet marketer, you?re missing out if you are not taking good thing about private label rights content.

How PLR Works

Just such as our soft ice cream example, if you buy PLR you purchase the directly to call it your own. You do not have to bother about giving attribution for the author, or providing a web link back to his or her site. You do not have to ? and in all likelihood shouldn?t ? even acknowledge the article began life as PLR. In other words, you will get lots of content for your website or blog at an affordable, and with very little work.

Read the License

Before buying ? or using ? private-label rights content, be sure you read the license. Most sellers place few restrictions on how their products are utilized, though there are some standard rules you need to consider. Typically, that can be done anything you like with PLR, including rewriting it, adding your reputation as the author, changing the format, combining it to articles to produce a longer work, or breaking a long piece into smaller parts.

What you generally cannot do with PLR is resell it PLR, although there are some sellers who allow this as well. Again, make sure you browse the license, when in doubt, ask the seller about any specific usages you aren?t sure of.

Change the Content

Once you?ve purchased your private label rights articles, it is vital that you change these phones suit your way with words and content needs. You may have purchased the highest-quality PLR available, nonetheless it still is not written together with your unique audience planned.

Start by rewriting the title. The title?s job is to buy site visitors to read the article. It must provide a compelling synopsis of this article itself, with a clear reason to help keep reading. It?s also a good idea to include the primary keyword inside the title, and so the search engines will get you.

If you?ve time, a line-by-line rewrite are able to turn PLR in to an unique article without worries you can find your content on someone else?s site. However, busy marketers often do not have time for the complete overhaul. In that case, rewriting the last paragraphs will make this content fit better together with your style of writing.

Obviously, if you?re using PLR on your own personal site or perhaps your newsletter, tos don?t be important. However, should you be going to use PLR on other sites such as article directories, Squidoo, HubPages, or maybe a self-publishing platform like Create Space, you have to be mindful of any restrictions they place on PLR content.

Some article submission sites expressly forbid the use of private-label rights articles, and definately will terminate your account if they find you in violation of the rule. Their reasoning is the fact that so many PLR buyers don?t customize the content at all, that they run the risk of having many versions with the exact same article on their own site. This is a waste of these resources, and doesn?t offer value on their readers, to help you understand why they forbid the use of PLR content.

Using white label rights articles could make content creation easier and less costly, with regards to both time and cash spent. To make dealing with PLR that much easier, be sure you start with quality content bought in reputable vendors. With just several packaging changes, you can make PLR content into unique, useful articles your readers will enjoy.

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Source: http://ezinepr.com/technology/convenient-using-plr-advice-examined/

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Video: Disney Buys LucasFilm for $4.05 Billion

Sorry, Readability was unable to parse this page for content.

Source: http://video.msnbc.msn.com/cnbc/49614263/

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Monday, October 29, 2012

Saturday's MLS roundup

By The Associated Press

Associated Press Sports

updated 11:34 p.m. ET Oct. 27, 2012

PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) - Chris Wondolowski tied the MLS single-season record with his 27th goal and the San Jose Earthquakes wrapped up the regular season with a 1-1 draw against the Portland Timbers on Saturday night.

Wondolowski scored in the 24th minute, matching the record set by Roy Lassiter of Tampa Bay in 1996. The 29-year-old forward booted a penalty kick into the lower left corner of the net after Portland goalkeeper Donovan Ricketts was whistled for taking out Steven Lenhart in a race to secure the ball.

San Jose (19-6-9) has already secured its second Supporters' Shield and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Earthquakes went undefeated in their last 10 matches and lead the league with 72 goals. They will face the winner of the Nov. 1 match between Los Angeles Galaxy and Vancouver Whitecaps in first round.

The Timbers (8-16-10) appeared to be going down to defeat in the cold, steady drizzle until Bright Dike scored his fifth goal in the 67th minute to tie the score and put some life into the Portland attack.

UNITED 1, FIRE 1, TIE

BRIDGEVIEW, Ill. (AP) - Lionard Pajoy scored in the 50th minute, and Bill Hamid made eight saves to help United rally to tie Chicago.

The draw gave D.C. second place in the Eastern Conference.

United (17-10-7) went 5-0-2 in its last seven matches to finish with 58 points, one more than New York and Chicago (17-11-6). New York finished third, ahead of fourth-place Chicago, on a tiebreaker.

With New York beating Philadelphia earlier in the day, the Fire needed to beat D.C. to avoid playing in the first-round one-game elimination round.

Instead, Chicago will host fifth-place Houston in that game Wednesday night. The winner plays Eastern Conference champion Kansas City in the second round.

Patrick Nyarko scored for Chicago in the 16th minute.

RED BULLS 3, UNION 0

CHESTER, Pa. (AP) - Kenny Cooper scored twice, and Thierry Henry added a goal for New York.

The Red Bulls (16-9-9) reached the playoffs for the third straight year, and the ninth time in 10 seasons. New York won all three matches this season against the Union (10-18-6), who lost their final three games and will miss the postseason for the second time in three years.

Cooper scored on a penalty kick in the 13th minute after Tim Cahill was taken down by defender Carlos Valdes in the box a minute earlier. Henry scored his 15th goal to make it 2-0 in the 35th minute.

Cooper added his team-leading 18th goal - and fifth against Philadelphia this season - in the 66th minute.

RAPIDS 2, DYNAMO 0

COMMERCE CITY, Colo. (AP) - Kamani Hill and Andre Akpan scored to help Colorado beat playoff-bound Houston.

Colorado (11-19-4) finished one of the worst campaigns in franchise history with only its second two-game winning streak of the year. The Rapids were 3-5-3 in their last 11 games.

Goalkeeper Steward Ceus posted his second shutout in his second career MLS start.

Houston (14-9-11) had already rapped up fifth place in the Eastern Conference and its sixth playoff appearance in seven years. The Dynamo will play Chicago in the wild-card game Wednesday night in Chicago.

Houston rested many of its regulars including its top five goal scorers and starting goalkeeper Tally Hall. Tyler Deric subbed for Hall and made his first career MLS start.

REVOLUTION 1, IMPACT 0

MONTREAL (AP) - A.J. Soares scored in the 89th minute to lift New England past Montreal.

Soares was inside the box to head Chris Tierney's free kick past the reach of goalkeeper Troy Perkins for an unsatisfying end to a game the Impact mostly dominated.

The Revolution (9-17-8) ended a 13-game winless run in road matches and won for the first time in Canada soil, having previously gone 0-5-3 in Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver.

The Impact finished the season 12-16-6.

WHITESCAPS 0, REAL SALT LAKE 0, TIE

SANDY, Utah (AP) - Real Salt Lake played to the scoreless draw with Vancouver and made a little bit of history along the way in the regular-season finale.

RSL (17-11-6) became just the second MLS team to not allow a goal in the first 15 minutes of any regular-season match when it held Vancouver (11-13-10) scoreless before halftime. Houston also accomplished the feat in 2009. Both teams qualified for the playoffs.

? 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


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Don't give Wondo an asterisk

PST: It's no fluke that Chris Wondolowski scored his 27th goal to tie a MLS single-season mark as San Jose tied Portland 1-1 on Saturday.

Source: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/49582150/ns/sports-soccer/

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Advice From Residential Drug Rehabs ? Alcohol, Drug Abuse And ...

Alcohol and drug abuse can have extensive effects on an addicts body, and in many instances, results in a trip to the ER. While there are a few common reasons for this, people often fail to understand the full realm of these incidences, and the strain it has on the medical system.

In all, the Drug Abuse Warning Network, also called DAWN, estimates that over 1.7 million out of a total of 113 million visits to the ER involve either drugs, alcohol, or both. Without proper alcohol or drug treatment, our health care system will continue to feel the strain. In this article, we?ll talk about some of the most common drug and alcohol related reasons that land victims in the ER.

Overdose

Residential drug rehabs say one of scariest incidences is often an overdose. Many victims are not found in time. When they are, no one knows for certain exactly what they had, how much they took, and how long ago they last used. In some instances, the substance is laced with other chemical substances that can react with the individual?s system causing death.

Those who do not undergo the proper drug treatment may also suffer an overdose. Most drugs require the use to up their usage continuously in order to maintain the high feeling they are accustomed to. It doesn?t often take long to reach that point either.

Accidents

Abusers commonly end up in the ER as a result of an injury sustained while under the influence. And it?s not only car accidents?slips, falls, and drowning are other common accidents. Fights and altercations, residential drug rehabs say, occur frequently while under the influence. The injuries associated with this can be substantial often including stab wounds, severe beatings, and gunshot wounds.

For some who do not receive the proper alcohol or drug treatment, the substance abuse transforms their behaviour into one of violence and aggressiveness. These require a barrage of special health services, and even then, many are fatal. DAWN says that approximately 28% of all emergency cases involving abuse involve attempted suicide. Of these, 92% involve an added concoction of legal pharmaceuticals.

Driving Under The Influence

Drivers under the influence of a substance can be deadly ? not only for the abuser, but for members of the general public as well. Driving safely is nearly impossible while under the influence of drugs that induce hallucinations, slow response, delayed mental processing, and vision/perception problems.

Drug/Alcohol Production

The making of addictive substances poses a danger in and of itself. Crystal Meth, for example, is made by mixing common substances found around the home. Unfortunately, the fumes given off by these mixtures can be deadly. Residential drug rehabs say the fumes as well as the left over product can transfer and soak into many surfaces posing not only a risk of an explosion, but also contacting with pets and young children.

Using residential drug rehabs for effective alcohol and drug treatment prevents a lot of these incidents ? some drug treatment specialists estimate prevention could saving more lives than the population of many cities. ERs would have smaller line ups, and the savings would make these vital services available to those who otherwise couldn?t afford it.

Author is a freelance copywriter. For more information on residential drug rehabs, visit http://www.Alcohol-Drug-Treatment.com/.

Article Source: Advice From Residential Drug Rehabs ? Alcohol, Drug Abuse And Its Impact on the Health Care System

By articlespan.com
Yaab

Source: http://healthblog.agoodplace4all.com/advice-from-residential-drug-rehabs-alcohol-drug-abuse-and-its-impact-on-the-health-care-system-17240th-edition/

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Daily Kos: Support 32,000 women who get pregnant after rape

I for one had NO IDEA how many women get pregnant from rape. So I researched and found a study conducted by medical professors at University of South Carolina. It's shocking. 32,000 EVERY YEAR. That's a lot of suffering women.

Can ANYONE who has a ?heart support elected officials or a party who would turn these 32,000 rape victims who get pregnant every year into criminals for seeking an abortion to free them from their nightmare? This idea of making abortion illegal for them is almost like legalizing LYNCHING of young women who get raped. It's outrageous. WOuld you want your daughter to be turned into a criminal if such a tragedy would befall her? If you think you are far from it; keep in mind, one in five college women is sexually assaulted.

We must make more people are aware of these hard cold facts to shock them into reality and action and shift the beauty shop and coffee shop conversations away from the abstract talking about "sanctity of life" versus "women's rights" to how we can SUPPORT our sisters who are victims of these atrocities. If everyone understands the stark reality about rape and unwanted pregnancy, people will rally against these men who plan to keep us down and out with forced birthing. ?This is an issue all women can rally around on both sides of the aisle and a lot of good men too. ? Let's stop glossing over reality with rhetoric. Let's protect these women and all women from the hands of out of touch people like Mourdock or Romney and Ryan who are working hard to take away our rights, as well as our dollars and "sense."

Spread the facts to young women you know. ?Read these medical studies below the fold that give proof to the numbers and tell the story of women who will suffer at the hands of lawmakers if we don't step up.

Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston 29425-2233, USA.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE:

We attempted to determine the national rape-related pregnancy rate and provide descriptive characteristics of pregnancies that result from rape.
STUDY DESIGN:

A national probability sample of 4008 adult American women took part in a 3-year longitudinal survey that assessed the prevalence and incidence of rape and related physical and mental health outcomes.
RESULTS:

The national rape-related pregnancy rate is 5.0% per rape among victims of reproductive age (aged 12 to 45); among adult women an estimated 32,101 pregnancies result from rape each year. Among 34 cases of rape-related pregnancy, the majority occurred among adolescents and resulted from assault by a known, often related perpetrator. Only 11.7% of these victims received immediate medical attention after the assault, and 47.1% received no medical attention related to the rape. A total 32.4% of these victims did not discover they were pregnant until they had already entered the second trimester; 32.2% opted to keep the infant whereas 50% underwent abortion and 5.9% placed the infant for adoption; an additional 11.8% had spontaneous abortion.
CONCLUSIONS:

Rape-related pregnancy occurs with significant frequency. It is a cause of many unwanted pregnancies and is closely linked with family and domestic violence. As we address the epidemic of unintended pregnancies in the United States, greater attention and effort should be aimed at preventing and identifying unwanted pregnancies that result from sexual victimization.

Am J Obstet Gynecol. 1996 Aug;175(2):320-4; discussion 324-5.
Rape-related pregnancy: estimates and descriptive characteristics from a national sample of women.
Holmes MM, Resnick HS, Kilpatrick DG, Best CL.
Source

PMID:
? ? 8765248
? ? [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

Source: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/28/1151636/-Support-32-000-women-who-get-pregnant-after-rape

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Sunday, October 28, 2012

T-Mobile also cancels NYC event on account of weather

T-Mobile Event

We've been through this before. This notice has just landed in our inbox:

Hi,

Apologies for the late mail, but due to the expected weather in New York, T-Mobile will be postponing its showcase event (which was scheduled for October 29) to a later date.  We will keep you posted on a rescheduled date as soon as we can.

Thanks for your flexibility and patience and apologies for the inconvenience.

The weather is getting nasty out there, and T-Mobile has decided that holding its event in New York City isn't the best choice. Since Google has also decided to postpone its impending Nexus event, we're not going to blame T-Mo for taking the safe route. No reason to risk having extra people traveling in Hurricane Sandy.

Stay safe out there, folks.



Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/androidcentral/~3/ch_J5PRz8xI/story01.htm

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Getting Wealthy One Decimal Point at a Time - Kung Fu Finance

Bora Bora Paradise

I traveled back from the outstanding Stansberry Alliance conference yesterday and will give you a full report on that next week?it was a great conference and I have lots to share with you!

Today, though, I want to share an essay with you from one of my personal kung fu wealth-building masters, Mark Ford.

Mark is a self-made multi-millionaire and an excellent writer to boot. We share the same ?no-nonsense? approach to wealth-building and I always find his essays insightful, honest, and of course, beautifully written.

I particularly love this essay as it underscores a point I make often here on Kung Fu Finance?that wealth-building and ?getting rich? are certainly possible, but must be achieved one step at a time.

Mark is a true wealth-building master and understands the concept of ?mastery? (vs. the ?buy this one stock and get rich quick!? mentality that tends to permeate the wealth-building industry).

I hope you enjoy his essay as much as I did?please let me know what you think in the comments!

To your financial success,

? Kung Fu Girl

Mark FordGetting Wealthy One Decimal Point at a Time
By Mark Morgan Ford

This essay is only for some of my readers. I?m thinking of readers who want to become really, really rich. Like, billion-dollar rich.

Be warned: If you are in that category, you may be disappointed by what I?m about to say. But you should read it with an open mind. Because what I am going to tell you is the only possible way to increase your wealth in any serious way.

I?ve had the following conversation more times than I would care to remember:

Aspiring Billionaire: I need you to help me.

Me: What can I do?

Aspiring Billionaire: I want to grow rich!

Me: Okay. Have you read any of my books?

Aspiring Billionaire: Yes, but they are about becoming a millionaire. I want to become a billionaire!

Me: You do? That?s interesting. Why?

Aspiring Billionaire: There?s no point in becoming a millionaire any more. It doesn?t cut it. I want to become a billionaire!

Me: That?s too bad.

Aspiring Billionaire: Why do you say that?

Me: For one thing, it?s a very silly goal.

Aspiring Billionaire: Anything the mind can conceive and believe it can achieve!

Me: I can conceive being an NBA player, but I know I can?t achieve it.

Aspiring Billionaire: That?s because you don?t believe it!

Me: You are such a dork. And would you stop ending your sentences in exclamation points?

Aspiring Billionaire: You are making fun of me.

Me: Yes.

The truth is that even if I took these guys seriously, I couldn?t help them. You see, I don?t know how to make billions. And I?m not sure anyone does.

Every year, we read stories about clever young people who create online businesses that they sell for a billion dollars or more. There aren?t many such stories, but they are so dramatic that they seem to be ubiquitous.

When I was starting out, my wealthy role models were early 20th-century industrialists like John D. Rockefeller, Henry Ford, and John Paul Getty. These guys became very wealthy by working long and hard for decades, building huge companies that dominated their markets.

They didn?t acquire their fortunes by coming up with a single clever concept and then selling it to a public company for stock.

I consider myself fortunate to have had those people?and not the Mark Cubans of today?as role models. Why? Because the chances of becoming a billionaire this ?new? way is about the same as the chances of becoming a professional sports star. One in a million.

So when people tell me that they are not interested in making millions, what they are really saying is that they are not interested in reality. They want to amuse themselves with highly improbable fantasies about becoming rich.

The truth is this: It takes a lot of effort to become rich. And it takes time.

It took me about four years of concentrated effort to become a millionaire and another seven years to acquire a net worth of $10 million-plus.

But even then, 20 years ago, I still didn?t know how to make millions. I was adding to my wealth in $100,000 increments.

And that experience led me to the following conclusion. If you want to become rich, you must give up the idea of becoming a billionaire. You must start from where you are and gradually learn to make greater sums of money one decimal point at a time.

In 1982, when I first decided to become rich, I was making $35,000 per year. I already had plenty of experience in business, but almost all of my businesses had been service businesses that billed in increments of hundreds or thousands of dollars. As an entrepreneur of such businesses, I could only conceive of and believe in adding to my wealth a few thousand dollars at a time.

If, for example, I wanted to make more money constructing above ground pools, I could (and did) develop an automated procedure for building such pools that any unskilled laborer could follow. This could (and did) allow me to increase the number of construction crews working for me. Each crew could generate $100-150 per day in net profits. That amounted to thousands of extra dollars in profits every week, not millions.

In 1982, I did not have my own business. Having returned several years earlier from a stint in Africa as a Peace Corps volunteer, I was working as an employee of a publishing company. As an employee, I could imagine getting big raises, but since my base salary was only $35,000, I couldn?t imagine how I could increase that sum by more than about 10% per year. Ten percent was $3,500. In other words, I knew how to get richer by thousands of dollars at a time.

After my big decision to become rich, I changed everything about the way I worked for money. I realized very quickly that I would have to do things differently to increase my wealth by more than $1,000 at a time. So I learned to write advertising copy, and I became my boss?s most valuable employee. Several months later, he gave me a raise to $75,000.

So I had learned to increase my wealth by $10,000 increments. What was the next step? To learn how to get richer $100,000 at a time. To do this, I had to become a business owner. I achieved this by inventing a new product and convincing my boss to let me have a 25% stake in it. This new product made more than $200,000 profit in the first several months after I launched it. I had learned how to get rich $100,000 at a time.

I spent the next 10 years learning how to build a serious business. Our business went from $1 million to about $135 million in revenue during that time. But that $135 million didn?t happen in one fell swoop. It was attained over 10 hard-working years, $1 million at a time.

During the following 10 years, I started many other businesses and I invested in real estate. Then my wealth grew by tens of millions, but for the most part they were all increments of million-dollar deals. The main business I worked with grew at $10 million increments, but my compensation was always a smaller portion of that. So I can?t say that my knowledge of getting rich has gone beyond earning $1 million at a time.

By diversifying, I was able to increase my overall income by $3-5 million per year. (Uncle Sam always took his 40%.) That was (and is) a lot of money. I sometimes fantasized about selling our business and making a huge, $10 million-plus killing. But I somehow knew that would have left me in limbo and forced me to start over again. I also realized that I was already earning all I needed to fulfill any need I could possibly have. So I tempered my ambitions. I focused on building sustainable wealth. I diverted my energies into other ambitions such as becoming a writer. Looking back, I believe I made the right choice.

Getting rich $1 million at a time was and is enough for me. And it should be enough for anyone. So that is the main idea I?d like to plant inside your head if you have the billionaire bug.

But even if you aren?t willing to give up that goal, you should still follow the process I have been describing: getting rich one decimal point at a time. You should do that because it is the only practical and reliable way of becoming wealthy. The get-rich-by-selling-your-online-brainchild to the public is a foolish fantasy you should give up now.

You have to learn each step in sequence: first get richer by $1,000, then $10,000, then $100,000, and then $1 million.

If you try to jump ahead, you will quickly crash headlong into your hubris. And I can tell you, that hurts.

So find out where you are and then figure out how to take the next step.

What are the steps?

Step One: If you are a salaried employee, you can increase your wealth by becoming the most valuable employee in your business. This will increase your wealth by tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars?though it may mean switching employers as you go. To find out how to do that, read Chapter 4 from Automatic Wealth. After you have done that, you can move to Step Two.

Step Two: If you are a professional or small business owner earning six figures, you can increase your wealth by a $100,000 at a time by replicating your business somehow. If you?d like to find out more about that, read The Reluctant Entrepreneur.

Step Three: If you have a business that is making millions of dollars per year, you can increase your wealth most effectively by making your business considerably larger than it is. To find out how to do that, read Ready, Fire, Aim.

But here?s something everyone who wants to become rich?millionaire rich or billionaire rich?should do: learn a financially valuable skill.

A financially valuable skill is a skill that you can use to climb the ladder of wealth one step at a time. It is a skill that will put you in the mix whenever the opportunity to acquire wealth appears.

There are not many financially valuable skills. In fact, there are basically only four: marketing, selling, producing profitable ideas, and managing profits.

Learning how to sell is probably the most important because it will allow you to sell both your ideas and also the idea that your ideas are valuable. You will need this skill in just about every possible business situation.

Marketing is also a very important skill. It will allow you to sell your company?s products and services to an ever-expanding market. It will also allow you to generate more income from the customers you have.

Learning how to produce profitable ideas is the most difficult skill to acquire. Many wealth builders never learn this skill. They simply use their sales and marketing skills to convince idea generators to sell them their ideas or work for them. If you don?t feel you have this skill, don?t worry. You can still become wealthy if you have some combination of the other three skills.

The final skill is the skill of managing profits. This is essential for building wealth. Many businesspeople develop businesses that bring in significant revenues. But because they lack the skill to create profits, they never get beyond earning a decent living. They never get rich. The good news is that learning how to manage profits is the easiest skill to acquire. You simply must commit yourself to it and pay attention to your business. The opportunities to increase cash flow and cut costs are always present.

So there you have it: my strategy for becoming as rich as you possibly can. Learn one or several of these financially valuable skills and then learn from them how to increase your wealth one decimal point at a time.

Best,

Mark

Editors Note: Making money is only half of the equation. You also need to know how to invest it the right way. Click here to hear more from Mark about about how money is really made in America.


About the Author:

Susan Fujii, aka kungfugirl, is an SEC Accredited Investor who believes that anyone can learn to be financially independent.

Susan has authored 183 posts on Kung Fu Finance, and you can connect with her on Google+.

Why don't you join our community on your journey to financial mastery.
Sign up below for the FREE Kung Fu Finance newsletter.

Source: http://www.kungfufinance.com/getting-wealthy-one-decimal-point-at-a-time/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=getting-wealthy-one-decimal-point-at-a-time

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San Francisco Buttermilk Biscuits from TV Food and Drink - Brought ...

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On Friday, everyone asked me at work with vibrant hopeful faces, ?What are you gonna do in San Francisco, Gary??

?I?m gonna sit on Sean?s couch, drink coffee and watch tv.?

Then everyone at work looked at me with sadness and pity slivers.

Why they expected more out of me is a mystery. When regularly asked, ?What are you doing this weekend, Gary?? I always answer the same: ?I?m going to stay home and put things away where they belong!?

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Because I don?t travel well, I close my eyes once I?m in my seat on the plane and imagine all the fun things I can do in San Francisco? bay cruise, cable car museum, Coit Tower, Castro Theatre. ?I continue to think about them as I sit on Sean?s oversize Crate and Barrel end chair and watch Food Network all Saturday long in my bedtime stretchy shorts and a slightly rough Indian blanket wrapped around my legs while Sean suggests activities for us:

?We could walk around Haight and see parts of the city we don?t normally see.?
?No.?
?Let?s go to Union Square and look for New Year?s clothes.?
?Why??
?We can go to Pearl?s and get hamburgers.?
?Stop talking. ?I can?t hear Pioneer Woman.?

From time to time, I?ll play with the new cat, Toby. ?He gets his weekend exercise flailing around trying to catch a bushel of colored feathers attached to the end of a plastic stick. ?I get my exercise shaking the stick.

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I would have slept in until noon, but because I don?t drink anymore, that?s nearly impossible now. My eyes opened at 8am. So I dragged myself into the living room, closed all the curtains Sean had opened to let the sun shine in, plopped down in my usual spot and looked for the remote control. It was on the far side of the couch, so when Sean got back from picking up everything he needed to make buttermilk biscuits, I asked him to ?hand it to me.

I like San Francisco. ?But more than San Francisco I like Sean. ?He says things like, ?I?m never eating pizza again!? and ?The Pioneer Woman looks like a fat Molly Ringwald,? and makes me breakfast so I have more time to channel surf. ?It?s in the mid-seventies in San Francisco today. I?m totally gonna get caught up on The Mindy Project.

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San Francisco Buttermilk Biscuits
Found at Completely Delicious
Adapted from The Gourmet Cookbook
(Makes 8 large biscuits)

  • 2 cups all purpose flour
  • 2 teaspoon baking powder
  • 1/2 teaspoon baking soda
  • 1/2 teaspoon coarse salt
  • 1/2 cup unsalted butter, cold and cut into cubes
  • 3/4 cup buttermilk, chilled, plus additional for brushing

Preheat oven to 425 degrees F. Line a baking sheet with parchment paper.

In a medium bowl mix together the flour, baking powder, baking soda, and salt. Mix in the butter with a pastry cutter or a fork until mixture resembles coarse meal. Add the buttermilk and stir until the dough comes together in a ball.

On a lightly floured surface, gather the dough into a bowl and knead gently 6 times. Pat dough into a 10 inch circle about 1/2 inch thick. Cut dough into three inch rounds with a lightly floured cutter. Place on the prepared baking sheet about 2 inches apart. Brush with buttermilk.

Bake until golden brown, about 12 to 15 minutes. Transfer to a wire rack to cool.

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Tags: breakfast biscuit recipe, Buttermilk biscuit recipe, Chris Messina The Mindy Project, CompletelyDelicious.com biscuit recipe, Easy buttermilk biscuit recipe, How to make biscuits, Mindy Kaling The Mindy Project, San Francisco eating, The Mindy Project

Posted in Breakfast and Homemade and San Francisco Eating 17 hours, 14 minutes ago at 12:20 pm. Add a comment

Source: http://tvfoodanddrink.com/2012/10/san-francisco-buttermilk-biscuits/

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Saturday, October 27, 2012

Sandy to erode many Atlantic beaches

ScienceDaily (Oct. 27, 2012) ? Nearly three quarters of the coast along the Delmarva Peninsula is very likely to experience beach and dune erosion as Hurricane Sandy makes landfall, while overwash is expected along nearly half of the shoreline.

The predictions of coastal change for the Delaware, Maryland and Virginia peninsula is part of a larger assessment of probable coastal change released by the U.S. Geological Survey Friday.

"Model forecasts are run anew for each hurricane, as each case has unique factors in terms of storm intensity, timing with respect to tides, angle of approach, and must account for ever-changing details of coastal dune configuration," said USGS Director Marcia McNutt. "These models help us understand where emergency management resources might be most needed."

Overwash, the landward movement of large volumes of sand from overtopped dunes, is forecasted for portions of the east coast with the projected landfall of the storm. The severity of overwash depends on the strength of the storm, the height of the dunes, and how direct a hit the coast takes.

"On the Delmarva Peninsula, near the storm's expected landfall, close to three quarters of the sandy coast is expected to see beach and dune erosion. Fifteen percent of the coast is very likely to be inundated by waves and storm surge," said USGS Oceanographer Hilary Stockdon from the USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center.

In these areas, waves and storm surge would transport large amounts of sand across coastal environments, depositing sand both inland and offshore and causing significant changes to the landscape, Stockdon noted.

The models show that along the New Jersey shore, 81 percent of the coast is very likely to experience beach and dune erosion, while 7 percent is very likely to experience overwash. It also indicates that on the south shore of Long Island, N.Y., including Fire Island National Seashore, 43 percent of the coast is very likely to experience beach and dune erosion. Overwash and inundation are not expected in these areas because of the relative high dune elevations.

According to USGS geologist Cheryl Hapke, many of the sandy beaches along the mid-Atlantic Coast have become increasingly vulnerable to significant impacts such as erosion because of past storms, including Hurricanes Ida (2009) and Irene (2011), as well as large northeastern storms in 2005 and 2007.

"Beaches and dunes often serve as the first line of defense for coastal communities against flooding and other hazards associated with extreme storm" said Hapke, "Any compromise to these features means that storm-related hazards are more likely to threaten coastal property, infrastructure, and public safety during a future extreme storm event."

Beach and dune erosion occurs when storm surge and waves collide with the base of a dune, termed collision in the model, and wash away significant amounts of sand. Overwash happens when these forces exceed dune height and move sand inland. Inundation is a process by which an entire beach system is submerged and, in extreme cases, can result in island breaching.

The USGS coastal change model forecasting likely dune erosion and overwash from the storm can be viewed online: http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/sandy/coastal-change/

For the latest forecasts on the storm, listen to NOAA radio. For information on preparing for the storm, visit Ready.gov or Listo.gov

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The above story is reprinted from materials provided by U.S. Geological Survey.

Note: Materials may be edited for content and length. For further information, please contact the source cited above.


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Disclaimer: Views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of ScienceDaily or its staff.

Source: http://feeds.sciencedaily.com/~r/sciencedaily/top_news/~3/xL2JFdKkWQU/121027164036.htm

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    RealClearMarkets - Got a Problem? Easy, Blame Free Trade

    It is not an understatement to say that Europe is an economic mess. It might be surprising, however, to mention that one of the most dysfunctional national pieces inside the patchwork currency noose of the euro is France. In the past twelve months, the French government has been "forced" to rescue Dexia, a major Belgian/French financier of municipalities, and Caisse C'ale du Credit Immobilier de France, a systemically important housing finance concern. Total French government involvement in those two non-traditional banks is a bit more than ?50 billion.

    The off-balance sheet arrangements of the French national government are going to grow again after news this week that Banque PSA Finance is being offered ?7 billion in state guarantees on PSA's debt. This non-bank bank is the financing subsidiary of Europe's #2 carmaker, PSA Peugeot Citroen SA. Off-balance sheet treatment is considered appropriate here because the national government's involvement is limited to guaranteeing debt, thus not a direct bailout.

    The complication, and what might arouse EU regulators, is that the French government is not simply handing over its "good" credit profile. In return for this non-bailout bailout, the government expects greater corporate leadership involvement and placement for government officials and, of course, union leaders. Money that isn't money does not come cheap for struggling companies.

    Objecting to this non-bailout of the non-bank is Peugeot's larger competitor, Europe's #1, Volkswagen AG. According to Reuters, one of Volkswagen's largest shareholders, the German state of Lower Saxony, has registered public objection to the proposed arrangement as a potential violation of EU competition rules. Peugeot's options are fairly limited as it has seen business fall off a cliff in both the periphery and core of Europe, but it has also sought out strategic partnerships with such illustrious carmakers as General Motors and one of its largest shareholders, the US federal government.

    The problem with Banque PSA is not losses on loans to car buyers, the non-bank has remained consistently profitable, but its financing condition as it relates to its parent Peugeot. The decline in the fortunes of Peugeot has brought with it debt downgrades that directly impact PSA. Both Moody's and Fitch require no more than a two notch difference between the parent and the financing subsidiary. Therefore, at best, PSA is stuck with Peugeot's debt as an anchor in its liquidity profile. If Peugeot is downgraded again, as Moody's has indicated, PSA will find itself one notch into speculative grade, otherwise known as junk.

    Banque PSA is not without financing options itself, however, though a downgrade into junk would threaten its intermediate-term viability. As an eligible participant in the European bank network funding scheme, it has direct access to the ECB. That central bank liquidity access comes at a relatively steep price - PSA would be required to front a 16% haircut on any eligible collateral, at least as the collateral rules are currently construed (when the going gets tough, count on the ECB to loosen those rules, again). That leaves securitizing auto loans as probably the best financing option for PSA, but that will require a financing bridge to get there; thus the non-bailout off-balance sheet debt guarantee.

    The official sector looms over everything here and none of it is enough.

    The primary problem is not that PSA is stuck passing along higher financing costs to auto borrowers, though that is being used as the principal excuse for this accounting exercise, it is that Peugeot is simply unable to sell enough cars. As long as PSA is tied to its carmaker parent, their fortunes will remain intertwined. Registrations across both the Peugeot and Citroen brands were down almost 11% in 2011. Third quarter 2012 sales are down another 3.9%, and Peugeot's stock is down 45% year-to-date.

    The ECB's answer, indeed the answer of mainstream economics, is to buy Spanish bonds on the open market? In all seriousness, this case perhaps demonstrates just how far afield monetary economics has strayed from what ails the global economy. In this one instance, the preferred monetary tool of increasing credit availability and reducing its related cost actually seems the most appropriate. The fortunes and ability of PSA to provide loans to perspective car buyers directly benefits the real economy through the related financing of car sales at Peugeot. There is no more efficient and direct link between the financial world and the real economy as there is here with PSA and Peugeot.

    Yet, there is really little doubt that all of these financial re-arrangements will fall far short of rescuing Peugeot from the abyss of the European car market. The lack of competitive financing may be a marginal nuisance to the carmaker as it tries to compete for business, but that is not what ails the firm. The issue is not even profitability for Peugeot; it is a revenue issue, as in a lack of overall car buyers. The travails of the French automaker are not unique, they are representative of manufacturing and global trade levels in the second half of 2012.

    Just yesterday, despite headline pronouncements of a large rebound (due mostly to Boeing), durable goods orders in the United States were less than impressive. That statement is not only valid when viewing the trend that has developed since the early part of the second quarter but also when viewed against year-ago levels. Total durable goods shipments, ex-aircraft, were up only 0.3% over September 2011. New orders were actually down 4.63%. Worse yet, capital goods shipments and new orders were down by 2.1% and 9.99% over September 2011, respectively - a 10% plunge in capital goods orders is not consistent with a healthy market for business investment in productive capacity. Capex, as it is called, is the process of turning successful business into growing and expanding employment, closing the circulation loop of marginal money in the beneficial creation of productive wealth in any economic system.

    As bad as those numbers were in the United States, exports for the export-oriented economy of Japan were perhaps an order of magnitude worse. Year-over-year, total export shipments fell by 10.3%! Included in that overall figure was a 0.9% increase in exports to the United States (which is not anywhere close to a robust figure for a yearly rate of change), a 14.1% drop in shipments to China, and an absolutely astounding 21.1% collapse in exports to the European Union.

    In response, Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa indicated his desire to conduct "seamless" monetary easing. Given that a significant proportion of the decline in exports, particularly to Europe, has a currency component (the yen has strengthened about 14% against the euro since April 2011), I'm not sure that "seamless" and monetary interventions belong in the same thought, let alone policy goal.

    This is the age of global free trade.

    In the years since the adoption of NAFTA on January 1, 1994, the benefits of global free trade were supposed to have been easily apparent to all parties involved. Ross Perot famously and comically warned in the 1992 presidential debates that there would be a "giant sucking sound" as US jobs relocated to Mexico. He was only partially prescient. It took 17 years, but, beginning in 2009, Mexico now produces more cars than Canada.

    Ford Motor, acting on the same lack of demand as Peugeot, has announced deep production cuts in Europe. The company has already slated the eventual closing of a plant in Genk, Belgium, and more immediate closures of plants in Southampton and Dagenham, UK. Ford expects to reduce supply in Europe by 18% as a result of these moves.

    At Ford's Hermossillo plant in Mexico (opened in 1986), however, the company announced in April its intentions for a $1.3 billion upgrade. It is expected that this capital expenditure will increase the number of workers from 2,700 to 3,700 as it focuses on increasing production of the Ford Fusion and the Lincoln MKZ.

    The proximity to the United States is not the only selling point for Mexico. An increasing appetite and ability to purchase more expensive automobiles is coming from countries like Brazil. But far and away the biggest draw is the estimated $5 to $6 an hour labor costs - the very sucking sound clumsily elucidated by Mr. Perot two decades ago.

    In the race to "seamlessly" devalue currencies against each other, as even Fed Chair Ben Bernanke implicitly asserted a few weeks back, the central banks of the developed world are missing both their real targets and the central problem. Mexico cares little if the euro devalues against the yen or dollar. Neither does Vietnam, Indonesia, Taiwan or even China. Japanese, American, Canadian and especially French workers cannot compete against $5/hour.

    In every respect, they were never supposed to. Global trade was supposed to be a rising tide that lifted all boats all over the world, not a zero sum game of competing for manufacturing scraps. The wealth and relative affluence of the "developed" world was supposed to filter its way into the emerging economies of Asia and Latin America (though Africa is never mentioned) through the beneficial arrangements of free trade. Instead, labor forces in each of the developed economies found themselves in direct competition with incomparable pay scales of those emerging nations.

    The laws of comparative advantage, first proposed by David Ricardo in the early 19th century, should have applied in these instances. But trade actually means TRADE, as in the mutual exchange of goods or even services - it takes two sides to trade. In trading and adopting free trade with these low pay scale nations, what goods can we sell back to them that they can actually afford? The prime economic problem with China is not so much that they peg their currency to the dollar, thus giving them a labor cost advantage, it is that we have no equivalently priced and sized market to return the trade advantages.

    Instead, the financial flow of money in these "free trade" arrangements inevitably ends up in the official sector at various central banks. "Capital" (an inappropriate term for this flow process) that accumulates as official reserves at foreign central banks is essentially dead capital. In the trade arrangements that Ricardo foresaw, capital amounted to the efficient arrangement of production factors, independent of national boundaries, that allowed an economic system to be more productive across the whole. A more productive system is one that advances the cause of human civilization and the overall standard of living.

    The intrusion of central bank reserves and the political impulses of constant government interventions surreptitiously erodes that productivity factor. In the two decades since NAFTA, foreign reserve accumulations have been returned to the United States not as reciprocated trade, but as financial economy purchases of financial instruments, particularly US government and agency bond instruments. The same has largely been true of Europe, but especially in the constraining age of the euro. Comparative production advantages locked into Germany's abandonment of the D-mark were returned as current account surpluses. That current account imbalance has only become exponentially worse since 2009.

    What the post-2008 world laid bare was the hollowness of the free global trade promises. As low cost countries increasingly "won" the labor competition for jobs and production facilities (true wealth), global central banks supplemented lost wages with "stimulative" monetary policies that significantly undercut the true price of financial risk. As wage income in the US stagnated, the US economy moved forward under the cover of debt-fueled consumer spending and asset bubbles. In that respect, the US was not all that much different than Greece or Spain.

    This is not what Ricardo had in mind.

    A natural price of financial risk would not have led to such a sustained imbalance. Had interest rates been allowed to normalize to the unilateral trade environment and the domestic suppression of wages, foreign "capital" flows would have been oriented toward high-return productive investments. The artificial suppression of risk spreads, in addition to the regulatory favor given to sovereign debt, de-emphasized the real economy returns that should have led to close the virtuous trade circle. Given a low spread between a "risk-free" US agency bond and a much more risky potential investment in corporate debt that might be used for capex-type expansion of productive facilities or developing new technology, there is little wonder foreign "capital" reserves favored the official debt sector (the political class was only too happy to oblige this favoritism).

    The net result of bastardized free trade is what we face today - jobs that were increasingly oriented to the financial economy and government. Employment follows the marginal flow of "capital", even when that capital ends up as the opposite of what capital is supposed to be. In the US, "free trade" became one of the direct pipelines into the growth and abuse of the mortgage market. Free trade in this context has been synonymous with the domination of finance over these various economies.

    The failure of finance after 2008, then, exposed the lack of wage income necessary to keep the whole closed system afloat. Without the financial flow supplementation, systemic wage levels are unequal to the economic challenge. What was promised as an age of free trade prosperity morphed into illusory wealth on a scale never imagined. Finally freed from that illusion, we now have to hope that markets will eventually be allowed to clear imbalances enough to restore an actual growth trajectory based on jobs and wages allocated by market needs, not artificial "capital" favoritism among central bankers. But as the saga of governments and their cumulative automaker fetish demonstrates, systemically important industries are much the same as banks, and therefore untouchable by the hands of market discipline.

    Modern free trade rolls on anyway without the promised benefits. As I said, it is now a zero sum game that pits domestic labor forces against each other in direct competition rather than shared, growing efficiency. That is really too bad since trade will end up with a nasty reputation unfitting its true design. Global trade, done freely without political and central bank collusion into the financial sphere, would actually offer one clear, but certainly not seamless, pathway out of this messy malaise.

    Source: http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2012/10/26/got_a_problem_easy_blame_free_trade_99954.html

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    Friday, October 26, 2012

    CIO Insights: Canadian Residential Real Estate ? The Next Bubble ...

    Mark Kopinski

    Mark Kopinski, Chief Investment Officer, Global and Non-U.S. Equity

    In our increasingly interconnected world, weakness in one market can quickly reverberate throughout the global economy. As events of the past five years have clearly demonstrated, investors must be vigilant for new stresses. Canada has been a relative isle of stability in recent years, and its real estate market has remained robust even after others have collapsed. But therein may lay a problem.

    A Bull Market for Canadian Real Estate

    In the past decade, low interest rates combined with high demand for housing and investment properties have caused Canadian residential real estate prices to almost double, far outstripping household income. As property values have grown, Canadians have further increased their debt through home equity loans. Canadian household debt relative to disposable income rose to a record this year, exceeding 150%. Recent estimates are that the big six Canadian banks have over CAD$700 billion in Canadian mortgage exposure and another CAD$180 billion in home-equity loan exposure. The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has insured about CAD$560 billion of the mortgage market which amounts to about a third of Canadian gross domestic product (GDP).1

    Is a Correction Coming?

    Many fear that Canadian residential real estate prices are due for a correction. Estimates range from a fall of 10-30%. Overbuilding in some cities, slowing income growth, and higher interest rates are triggers that could cause real estate prices to fall. Due to the high level of household debt in Canada, a fall in property values could have a reverse wealth effect in the world?s 10th largest economy. The Bank of Canada has repeatedly warned that interest rates will increase, which will increase costs to highly leveraged borrowers and potentially lead to defaults and foreclosures. If the CMHC lacks sufficient assets to cover these losses, the Canadian taxpayer will have to take up the slack, adding further pressure on the economy.

    Fundamental Differences

    While this situation is potentially serious, there are fundamental differences between Canada?s real estate market and those that collapsed in the United States, Ireland, and Spain. First, national statistics for Canadian home ownership affordability are skewed by extreme market conditions in the city of Vancouver, British Columbia, which continues to be the least affordable city in Canada. Reports indicate that many new buyers in Vancouver are not highly levered Canadians but Chinese with plenty of cash looking for second homes and investment properties. As high as Vancouver prices have become, they are still very attractive relative to similar properties in Asia. And while affordability has deteriorated in other areas of Canada, nationally it is still below the peaks reached during the Canadian housing bubble of the late 1980s.

    Second, starting in 2008, the Canadian government has implemented a series of reforms to cool the housing market, including higher down payments, more stringent loan-to-value requirements, shorter payment periods, and tougher underwriting standards. Recent data shows that these measures are having the desired effect. In addition, because a greater share of mortgages in Canada have variable interest rates and not the long-term fixed rates favored in the United States, the Canadian market is more sensitive to interest rate changes and hence to Central Bank policy. Finally, unlike in many states within the United States, Canadian homeowners cannot simply walk away from their mortgages, making default a far less attractive option.

    In summary, the structure of the Canadian real estate market and timely government policies that have already been implemented make a U.S.-style real estate collapse and the attendant stress on financial markets unlikely, though not impossible.

    Download a PDF of this post.

    1 MarketWatch, May 24, 2012

    International investing involves special risks, such as political instability and currency fluctuations. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks.

    The opinions expressed are those of Mark Kopinski and are no guarantee of the future performance of any American Century Investments portfolio.

    For educational use only. This information is not intended to serve as investment advice.

    Source: http://americancenturyblog.com/2012/10/cio-insights-canadian-residential-real-estate-the-next-bubble/

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